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Es werden Posts vom 2016 angezeigt.

US-EU Trade Slowdown?

In December 2015, oil tankers made u-turns while crossing the Atlantic [ZHOIL]. In March 2016 the mayor German rail carrier announced a 8-10% percent drop in fright shipments for 2015 [RG]. In April 2016 its cheaper to rent a dry bulk tanker than a Ferrari F40 [ZHTANKER].

European capital markets started weak this year, recovered to their highs again while the US dollar weakened during Q1 2016. Are US and Europe's economies are healthy?

(Side note: As TTIP is coming back onto the agendas of the media, political parties, NGOs, investors and companies. Why should a rigid trade deal be made, when the benefits are small but the risks of loosing national sovereignty is high while the future economic situation is very uncertain? Maybe some oligarchs try to secure their power before historic changes are happening?)
US-EU Trade
The first industry which feels a slow down in the (world) economy is the logistic  sector. This early indicator worked like charm the last 2 crisis. Now its crash…

Value of written goals

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Here and there I heard about a Harvard study about having goals drives success. I thought "Sounds reasonable, no need to think about it deeply." Today I heard a talk of Gerald Hörhan and he mentioned the example, again. So my many-smart-people-talked-about-it threshold was crossed and I did a short research to find that study. I hoped to get an interesting topic I can use as material for talks.

And I found an urban myth [DOMINICAN]. But is there any truth to it? The Dominican University (?researcher Gail Matthews and Sarah Gardner?) did a study, because they saw a research opportunity. I found just a summary (see [SUMMARY]) and no original source to the study. But, well, once you kill a cow, you gotta make a burger.

Goal Study
The study split the participants into 5 groups and compared what goals they achieved 4 weeks later [SUMMARY, FORBES]:
Group 1 - deeply analyzed their goals and the resources they had to accomplish them.  Group 2 – wrote down their goals after the deep an…

2015 Portfolio review

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2015 was dismissal! I increased my portfolio just by 3.53%.



2015Buy PriceBuy DatePriceDatePerf.absBEGINENDHold






Nestle67.89 €2015-02-0969.66 €2015-12-302.61%10.00%10.26%Barrick Gold10.99 €2015-02-096.98 €2015-12-30-36.49%20.00%12.70%Oracle37.79 €2015-02-0933.96 €2015-12-30-10.13%10.00%8.99%Reply67.69 €2015-02-09127.90 €2015-12-3088.95%10.00%18.89%SMT Scharf14.67 €2015-02-0910.00 €2015-12-30-31.83%15.00%10.22%







Sold






Mircosoft22.30 €2013-04-1838.94 €2015-09-1974.62%10.00%17.46%







Cash




25.00%25.00%







Performance




100.00%103.53%

This year I failed to achieve my target RoIC of 26% p. a. by a whopping 22.5%. The suckers were Barrick Gold and SMT Scharf which I overweighted.

SMT Scharf
The coal decline was somewhat foreseeable - surely not to its extend.* The years before 2015 coal mines produced more than the world demanded, thereby anticipating growth mainly in China. Right now China seems to grow slowly. Looking at electricity consumption growth of 1.3% from January to June 2015

Silverlake Axis Ltd

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Silverlake Axis is a banking software company. It operates in south East Asia and is one of a few player in the banking software oligopoly. Prior to August 2015 Sliverlake Axis was a star. Than the bombshell dropped, as razor99 accused Mr. Goh (60% shareholder and CEO of Silverlake) that he and Silverlake did dubious deals in related party transactions at the expense of minority shareholder [RAZOR99]. The stock got slaughtered - from 1.20 to 0.55 SGD. In January 2016 Deloitte cleared Silverlake of these accusation [DELOITTE]. Is Silverlake a value buy now?


Can I trust the numbers?

Deloitte Singapore was ordered by Silverlake to investigate razor99 accusations [RAZOR99, DELOITTE]. Deloitte found that for the 3 acquisition in question, the prices 2 had fair prices where 1 was in the higher range of fair. ROI is for the 2 fair acquisitions 10 to 12% whereas the other is about 3%. Today the 3 acquired businesses make up to 85% of revenue. Silverlake today is Silverlake because of the 3 acqu…