Posts

Es werden Posts vom Dezember, 2015 angezeigt.

Understanding Energy Sector: The history of oil and fracking

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2015 is over and my challenge of 2015 was to acquire knowledge outside the software industry. In my opinion the energy sector is the most important sector of all, so I want to understand more of it. Without oil, no warm houses, no fertilizer (= less food), no transport, no travel (beyond a couple of miles). I felt like Alice in Wonderland going deep the rabbit hole and I want to share some of my insights.

First I studied oil history, than fracking oil industry, than the coal industry. Fracking is a very interesting topic by itself. 10 years ago nobody though the US will ever produce > 10M barrels a day - now it does. This is a huge game changer economically and geopolitically. The political debate in Europe to allow fracking made me very interested. Is there an hidden opportunity? Therefore I wanted to understand this (1) fracking revolution as well as (2) its impact on doing business. After the crash of the oil price in August I did research into the market structure of oil.

Af…

Startup Investing: Throw a snowball

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This article is how I came up with a medtech startup idea, which is based on my previous article about filtering ideas Startup Investing: How to build a snowball.

How I got an idea Half a year ago I read the high interesting book "Risk Savvy" by Gigerenzer. The book is about decision making under uncertainty and risk. A couple of chapters are about medical decision making for doctors and patients. Basically Gigerenzer promotes the idea of using natural frequencies and fact boxes to communicate risks of a therapy, drugs and illnesses.

Natural Frequencies describe probabilities as absolute numbers. Saying "5 out of 100 people get ill" is better than saying "5% of people get ill". The main advantage of saying "5 out of 100" is, that its easier to visualize. A second advantage is that it explicitly says on what the probability refers to and prohibits evil relative probability.

Relative probability is mathematically correct, but really evil, if not co…